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Predictions for MARCH 2009 |
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Contributed by job
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Saturday, 11 April 2009 |
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(8)
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of February 7-14,. 2009 was a bit surprising to me as no quakes exceeded 3.1M in Washington or Oregon, despite the lunar eclipse, perigee and 8.3-foot tides at the Golden Gate. The summary results follow:
(1) For the Mt. Diablo two degree circle there was a 3.8M near Tres Pinos on February 5th, two days early for a score of (80%). (2) For the L.A. two degree circle there were two quakes near Mexicali of 3.7 and 3.6M on February 9th for a 100% hit. Both were just within the 140 mile radius. At 121 miles from L.A. was a 3.9M near Taft on Feb 15th, one day late for a 90% score.
For the L.A. two degree circle there were two quakes near Mexicali of 3.7 and 3.6M on February 9 for a Both were just within the 140 mile radius. At 121 miles from L.A. was a 3.9M near Taft on Feb 15, one day late for a 90% score.(3) For the Northwest, no quake met the minimum scoring magnitude of 3.2 during the Window. However, there was a startling 4.6M 14 miles west of Seattle on January 31st and a unique 4.1M near Follows, in southwestern Oregon on the morning of February 26th. Both of these non-scoring quakes were in a Secondary Window following the new Moons of Jan. 26 and Feb 24. However, my predicted full Moon Window scored (00%)
For the Northwest, no quake met the minimum scoring magnitude of 3.2 during the Window. However, there was a startling 4.6M 14 miles west of Seattle on January 31 and a unique 4.1M near Follows, in southwestern Oregon on the morning of February 26. Both of these non-scoring quakes were in a Secondary Window following the new Moons of Jan. 26 and Feb 24. However, my predicted full Moon Window scored (4) The Pacific Ring of Fire came thru with a 7.4M in Indonesia on Feb. 11th, for a (score of 100%). This was the first major quake in the world since my predicted January Window. It was followed by a 7.0M in the Kermadec Islands on February 18th, which was the fifth major so far this year, when two to three might be expected.
Summary: .80 + 1.00+ 00 + 1.00 =2.80/4 = 70%
My non-scoring MOSS prediction came very close. The Mediterranean countries had no significant quake until Feb 16, when a 5.6 hit southern Greece. I had called for a 5+M by Feb 15. Also a day late and a dollar short was a 4.6M in Western Turkey.
On Feb. 22nd there were quakes of 3.2M at Pt.. Sal, Pt. Arena and in Oklahoma. During February there were three small quakes of up to 3.0M on the Ramapo Fault in New Jersey.
PREDICTIONS FOR MARCH
The Seismic Window of March 8-15, 2009 depends on the Full Moon of March 10th and the Perigee 87 hours earlier. Tides at the Golden Gate reach a maximum of only 6.8 feet on March 8 (and 12.6 ft. at Puget Sound on March 9.) Not surprisingly,. after seven months of focusing on the full Moon syzygy, I will be switching to the new Moon from April through October, when much higher tidal ranges will occur. For March 8-15th I predict one or more quakes with the following characteristics.
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 2-degrees (140 miles) of Mt. Diablo at 37.9N; 121.9W.
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles City Hall at 34.0N; 118.0W.
(3) 3.5-6.0M with an epicentral address of Oregon or Washington.
(4) 7.0+M globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire where 80% of the strongest quakes have occurred in the past.
My non-scoring MOSS prediction is for a 4,0+M quake in TX or OK during March.2009
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Predictions for July 29-Aug 5, 2008 |
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Contributed by JOB
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Thursday, 31 July 2008 |
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of July 1-8, 2008 measured up to expectations based upon near-record tidal forces, although the animal behaviors were contaminated by the usual Independence Day anomaly. The lost and found columns of the L.A. TIMES were illustrative of this, as witness the sequence of missing pets from July 4-15:
6. 7, 6, 5, 10, 11, 15, 17, 10, 9, 5, 7… The peak of July 11 was typical of the fireworks anomaly, as it usually is seen from five to seven days after the noise and excitement of the Fourth of July. Skeptics have no problem with this correlation but fail to recognize the earthquake precursory clues provided by sensitive animals to stimuli occurring PRIOR TO many earthquakes.
(1) The prediction for the 2-degree Central California circle came close when a quake of 3.7M hit near Paso Robles, 167 miles south of Mt. Diablo on July 6th which scored 100X80x100 =80% for Time, Place and Magnitude. On June 28th near Tom’s Place there was a 4.3M event that scored70x100x100=70%. A lesser score was attained for a 3.7M on July 10th near Toms Place, with an epicenter 169 miles east of Mt. Diablo. Score: 80x80x100= 64% .
(2) For Southern California, there was considerable seismic activity, topped with the 3.4M near Olancha on July 4th.scoring 11x11x90=90%. On July 1st a 3.2M south of Salton Sea hit the third ring out from a 3.5M bull’s eye, and scored 100x100x70=70%. There also was a 3.2M in northern Baja on July 5th, but was four miles beyond my 140 mile prediction for L.A. and thus scored only 100x90x70=63%.. Near Ludlow on July 6th there was a 3.3M quake, which was rated at 100x100x80=80% for Time, Place and Magnitude. A 3.7M near Guadalupe, Baja California was 189 miles from L.A. and was seven miles too far south to score, although it was on the last day of the Window.
(3) The Northwest Prediction came through big time with a 4.0M event west of Bandon, Oregon, which rated 100x100x100=100%. Also continued moderate activity occurred off the coast of Oregon with a 5.1M on June 29th (80x100x100=80%), also quakes of 4.4 and 4.3M hit on June 29th, both rated at (80x100x100-80%)
(4) The Global prediction for a major quake found two eligible quakes, a 7.0Mw on June 30th struck east of the South Sandwich Islands south of South America (90x100x100=90%). The winner was the 7.7M in the Okhotsk Sea near Kamchatka on July 4th. This was the second largest world quake so far this year and it scored 100x100x100=100%.
The final result of the July 1-8th Window was 80+90=100+100=370/4=92.5%)
AUGUST PREDICTIONS
The July 29-August 5, 2008 Seismic Window includes the total Solar eclipse on August 1st, the close perigee 58 hours earlier and the resulting 8.3 ft. tidal range at the Golden Gate on July 30th. This combination should produce one or more quakes with the following parameters:
(1) 3..5-6.5M within 140 miles (2-degrees) of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W.)
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles City Hall (34.0N; 118W)
(3) 3.5-6.0M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.
(4) 7.0M+ major quake globally, probably in the Pacific Ring of Fire. |
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Predictions for July. June Resultrs |
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Contributed by job
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Wednesday, 25 June 2008 |
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of June 1-8th was replete with earthquakes, many in unusual places. All it lacked was a 7.0+M quake, but close to the minimum score was the 6.6M quake in Southern Greece that killed at least two people and injured hundreds. It hit on the last day of the June Window. No major quakes occurred in the world since the 7.9-8.0M Chinese quake on the last day of the May Window. (As I complete this July Issue of SYZYGY the next major quake occurred, striking Honshu, Japan on June 13th.) The USGS determination of 6.8M would leave it just 0.2M shy of major status. Let us examine what happened during the June Window compared with my predicitons
(1) There were widely felt quakes of 4.1 and 4.0M at The Geysers on May 29th. These were three days early for a score
of 70%; however, on June 3rd an even more widely event was centered on the Green Valley Fault, southwest of Napa.
It was felt by many people in Sonoma Valley, but I regret to say I missed it. I was at a lively dinner for docents at the Bouverie Nature Preserve when my earthquake belt indicator sounded and revealed that a 3.9M had struck about 30 miles away at 7:29 p.m. I happily announced to many in the crowd that the quake I had predicted in the newsletter I had just handed out had already struck. I called it "my kind of quake" not big enough to hurt, but big enough to grab your attention."
(SCORE: 100%) for my 140 mile circle around Mt. Diablo. Just three days later there was another 100% hit right next to Mt. Diablo, when the town of Alamo (remember it) was jolted by a pair of quakes measuring 3.5 and 3.0M. The interrupted swarm at Verdi, Nevada resumed with jolts of 3.9 and 3.6M on June 8th, about 154 miles east of Mt. Diablo.
They were worth 80-90% in my scoring system as they were ten percent beyond my 140 mile limit.
2) For the Circle of interest around Los Angeles, there was a lot of minor activity, including a numerous swarm near the south end of the Salton Sea near a geothermal area. The largest of 3.2M on June 1st was good for a rating of 70%. The next days there were quakes of 3.0M (too weak to score) near El Centro and Idylwild; however, Mexicali came through with a 3.8M on June 7th for a score of 100%.
3) There was no suspense regarding the Washington/Oregon prediction as a 4.7M shaker was centered on the oceanic ridge off the coast of Oregon on June 1st.for a satisfying score of 100%. It would be just fine with me if all of the Pacific Coast quakes were less than 5.0M and stayed well to the west of the coastline.
4) The prediction for a global quake of at least 7.0M failed to produce even a 6.7M event, although the destructive 6.6M quake hit southern Greece on June 8th Also a mid-Indian Ocean quake of 6.6M struck on May 30th. (Score: 00%)
Thus the total of the four predictions for June were 100+100+100+00 = 300/4= 75% , in keeping with my 34-year average of three out of four. (Chance would allow me little more than one out of four.)
I would like to stress that my predictions are like suggesting that if you are going to drive to the Sierras at Christmas time, you had better carry skiis. There is no guarantee of a snow storm, but the potential is relatively high at that time.
Knowing that an 6.0M quake hits globally every three days on average, look at the following concentration in and around the prime June Seismic Window:
(6.2M) Iceland, May 29; (6.6M Mid-Indian Ocean, May 30; (6.0) Philippines 5/31; (6.0M) Banda Sea, June 01; (6.4M) MacQuarrie Is., June 03; (6.3M) Solomon Is., June 03; (6.1, 6.3M) Flores Is., June 03; (6.3M) Hokkaido, Japan, June 04; (6.0M Banda Sea, June 6; (6.6M) So. Greece June 08);
During those eleven days from May 29-June 08, there were eleven strong quakes of 6.0-6.6M, rather than the expected number of three or four. Blame tidal forces, and look to your own local phenomena to determine if your area might be "under the gun."
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