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Predictions for July. June Resultrs |
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Contributed by job
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Wednesday, 25 June 2008 |
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of June 1-8th was replete with earthquakes, many in unusual places. All it lacked was a 7.0+M quake, but close to the minimum score was the 6.6M quake in Southern Greece that killed at least two people and injured hundreds. It hit on the last day of the June Window. No major quakes occurred in the world since the 7.9-8.0M Chinese quake on the last day of the May Window. (As I complete this July Issue of SYZYGY the next major quake occurred, striking Honshu, Japan on June 13th.) The USGS determination of 6.8M would leave it just 0.2M shy of major status. Let us examine what happened during the June Window compared with my predicitons
(1) There were widely felt quakes of 4.1 and 4.0M at The Geysers on May 29th. These were three days early for a score
of 70%; however, on June 3rd an even more widely event was centered on the Green Valley Fault, southwest of Napa.
It was felt by many people in Sonoma Valley, but I regret to say I missed it. I was at a lively dinner for docents at the Bouverie Nature Preserve when my earthquake belt indicator sounded and revealed that a 3.9M had struck about 30 miles away at 7:29 p.m. I happily announced to many in the crowd that the quake I had predicted in the newsletter I had just handed out had already struck. I called it "my kind of quake" not big enough to hurt, but big enough to grab your attention."
(SCORE: 100%) for my 140 mile circle around Mt. Diablo. Just three days later there was another 100% hit right next to Mt. Diablo, when the town of Alamo (remember it) was jolted by a pair of quakes measuring 3.5 and 3.0M. The interrupted swarm at Verdi, Nevada resumed with jolts of 3.9 and 3.6M on June 8th, about 154 miles east of Mt. Diablo.
They were worth 80-90% in my scoring system as they were ten percent beyond my 140 mile limit.
2) For the Circle of interest around Los Angeles, there was a lot of minor activity, including a numerous swarm near the south end of the Salton Sea near a geothermal area. The largest of 3.2M on June 1st was good for a rating of 70%. The next days there were quakes of 3.0M (too weak to score) near El Centro and Idylwild; however, Mexicali came through with a 3.8M on June 7th for a score of 100%.
3) There was no suspense regarding the Washington/Oregon prediction as a 4.7M shaker was centered on the oceanic ridge off the coast of Oregon on June 1st.for a satisfying score of 100%. It would be just fine with me if all of the Pacific Coast quakes were less than 5.0M and stayed well to the west of the coastline.
4) The prediction for a global quake of at least 7.0M failed to produce even a 6.7M event, although the destructive 6.6M quake hit southern Greece on June 8th Also a mid-Indian Ocean quake of 6.6M struck on May 30th. (Score: 00%)
Thus the total of the four predictions for June were 100+100+100+00 = 300/4= 75% , in keeping with my 34-year average of three out of four. (Chance would allow me little more than one out of four.)
I would like to stress that my predictions are like suggesting that if you are going to drive to the Sierras at Christmas time, you had better carry skiis. There is no guarantee of a snow storm, but the potential is relatively high at that time.
Knowing that an 6.0M quake hits globally every three days on average, look at the following concentration in and around the prime June Seismic Window:
(6.2M) Iceland, May 29; (6.6M Mid-Indian Ocean, May 30; (6.0) Philippines 5/31; (6.0M) Banda Sea, June 01; (6.4M) MacQuarrie Is., June 03; (6.3M) Solomon Is., June 03; (6.1, 6.3M) Flores Is., June 03; (6.3M) Hokkaido, Japan, June 04; (6.0M Banda Sea, June 6; (6.6M) So. Greece June 08);
During those eleven days from May 29-June 08, there were eleven strong quakes of 6.0-6.6M, rather than the expected number of three or four. Blame tidal forces, and look to your own local phenomena to determine if your area might be "under the gun."
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Predictions for June 2008; May results |
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Contributed by JOB
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Monday, 02 June 2008 |
PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE
The Seismic window of June 1-8, 2008 is based on the new Moon of June 3rd and the very close perigee just 8 hours earlier. The resultant high tides will peak out at a startling 9.0 ft. at Golden Gate on June 3-4, and 16.6 ft. at Puiget Sound on June 5-6, 2008. I predict with 85% confidence that there will be one or more of the following earthquakes:
1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles (2 degrees) of Mt. Diablo at 37.9N; 121.9W.
2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles at 34.0N; 118.0W.
3) 3.5-5.5M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.
4) 7.0M= major quake globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of fire, where most large quakes hit.
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APRIL RESULTS----PREDICTIONS FOR MAY |
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Contributed by JOB
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Thursday, 01 May 2008 |
LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKESThe Seismic Window of April 5-12, 2008 was quite productive, which was typical for most Aprils.
(1) For NorCal there was a 3.0M event near Tres Pinos on April 5th and a 2.9M event near Santa Rosa on April 9 for no credit. The nearest quake of 3.5+ was the strongest of a Reno swarm of 3.6, 3.4, 3.4, 3.2 that hit on April 15th, which was three days late (70%) and 14 miles beyond my predicted radius of 140 miles from Mt. Diablo (Score .70 x .90 x 1.00 = 63%).
(2) For SoCal on April 6th a 3.2M shook Barstow (70%) and a 3.6M hit near Ridgecrest Score: 100%); On April 14th a 3.4M rattled Yucca Valley (90%) and on the same day there was a 3.2M near Santa Barbara (70%). On April 4, a 3.7M hit near Ocotillo early and far (63%).
(3) The Northwest came through strongly on the first day of the Window with an unusual quake of 3.6M near Maupin, Oregon (Score: 100%) A lesser score of 70% was received for the 5.2 on April 2nd off the Oregon Coast where a series of stronger quakes have occurred recently, including a 5.0M on April 10th (100%). Also the Full Moon of April 20th was followed the next day by a 3.4M quake near Verlot, Washington.
(4) The Ring of Fire produced two major quakes during the April Seismic Window (numbers four and five for the year globally through April 24 as I write this.) There was a 7.5M event in the Vanuatu Islands (formerly New Hebrides) on April 9th (Score: 100%); two days later it was followed by a second major event that was located near the MacQuarrie Islands (7.2M, which also scored 100%).
(5) My unscored MOSS prediction was a startling success, with the strongest U.S. quake east of the Mississippi River in a decade. I had called for a magnitude 4.0M during the first half of April and missed by only 52 hours when eastern Illinois became the center of a damaging 5.2M quake early on April 18th that was felt from southern Canada to Atlanta to Chicago. It was only about 10 miles deep and was located on the Wabash Valley Fault zone, a NE continuation of the infamous New Madrid Fault. There were many aftershocks, including at least three of 4.0-4.6M. My wife and I were in range, as we spent a couple of hours in Chicago’s Midway Airport, but flew out about 14 hours before the quake. Darn!
I can’t ignore a rare Texas quake of 3.9M that struck in the Window near Falls City on April 7th.
Summary of predictions for April: .63 x 100 x 100 x 100 =363/4 = 90.1% |
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