LAST MONTH’S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of February 18-25, 2008 was extremely productive but fortunately not very deadly. The spectacular lunar eclipse on Feb. 20th was widely seen in the Western Hemisphere and I heard from several people that they thought of me and my theory during the lunar near-blackout.
On that same day of perfect syzygy the Earth experienced its first major quake since the 7.2 in the Aleutians last December 19th. Also on February. 20 was a damaging 6.2M in southern Greece. Just hours after the eclipse there was a highly unusual 6.0-6.3M quake that caused severe damage at Wells, Nevada, which was followed by numerous aftershocks up to 4.6M. Equally surprising on Feb. 21st was the 6.2M on Svalboard, (Spitzbergen Is.) north of Norway.
On average an earthquake of +6.0M occurs about every three days. During the 8-day February Window there were six quakes of 6.0-6.9M and two of 7.0-7.4M. That kind of activity should alert anyone to the shaking potential of a Seismic Window. To pin down the place, aware people should be alert to any local anomalies in animals, noises, lights, wells and springs and possible foreshocks.
Here is the list of significant quakes during the February Window: Feb. 189(Sumatra, 6.0M); Feb. 20 (So. Greece, 6.2M; Indonesia, 7.5M); Feb. 21 (Svalbard, 6.2M; Wells, NV, 6.0-6.3M); Feb. 23 (S. Sandwich Is., 6.4M); Feb. 24 (Indonesia, 6.6M); Feb. 25 (Padang, Sumatra, 7.0M); In addition another strong quake of 6.4M hit the Bonin Islands on the day after the Window closed.
Furthermore, the month of February contained a total of at least twenty quakes that exceeded 6.0M during a month containing eclipses of both the Sun and Moon.
Here is my scorecard for my February 18-25, 2008 predictions, where I hit 100% for three of my four main predictions, as well as 100% for my MOSS prediction for a 6+ in Mexico.
(1) For NorCal, a 4.1M hit The Geysers on Feb. 23rd scoring 100%. A 3.7M near Lone Pine on Feb. 18th was well out of my 140 miles radius around Mt. Diablo.
(2) For SoCal, a 4.1M hit Ocotillo on Feb. 24, scoring 100%. (This was 139 miles south of Los Angeles, barely within my 140 miles radius from 34.0N; 118.0W.) In addition, quakes of 3.2M hit San Clemente I. on Feb. 18, and 3.2M at Ocotillo on Feb. 19. Both of those scored 70%, but were not needed.
(3) For the Northwest, there were no quakes recorded that reached 3.0M, which builds up the probability for March. Score zero
(4) In the Ring of Fire there were two major events, a 7.5M near Sumatra on Feb. 20 and a 7.0M near Padang, Indonesia on the last day of the window. Either one scored 100%. Thankfully we did not read of massive deaths, as only three died in the 7.5M earthquake.
On Feb. 23rd another quake of 6.9M in the So. Sandwich Islands would rate 90%.
(5) My Monthly Outright Seismic Speculation (MOSS) for a 6+ in Mexico also hit with the 6.4M quake at Chiapas on Feb. 12th, shortly after my family returned from Los Cabos. We flew back over Mexicali, where a rare swarm of 4.0-5.5M quakes occurred near the volcano, Cerro Prieto, beginning on the day of the solar eclipse (Feb. 8, 2008)
Score: 100 +100+00+100 = 300/4 = 75% + honorable mention for the MOSS hit.
PREDICTIONS FOR MARCH
The Seismic Window of March 7-14, 2008 is based on the New Moon of Mar. 7, and a close perigee of 10. The maximum Golden Gate tidal range of only 6.4 ft on Mar 12th is only 50% higher than a normal tide this year, but March has historically been highly seismic. I give 80% probability for the following predictions: (1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles (2-degrees) of Mt. Hamilton in the East Bay.
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of L.A. (34.0N; 118.0W); (3) 3.0-6.0M in the Northwest, (WA/OR )
(4) Major global quake of at least 7.M, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire.
|
